'R polynomal regression or group values and test between groups + outcome interpreatation
I am trying to model the relation between a scar acquisition rate of a wild population of animals, and I have calculated yearly rates before.
If you see below the plot, it seems to me that rates rise through the middle of the period and than fall again. I have tried to fit a polynomial LM with the code
model1 <- lm(Rate~poly(year, 2, raw = TRUE),data=yearlyratesub)
summary(model1)
model1
I have plotted using:
g <-ggplot(yearlyratesub, aes(year, Rate)) + geom_point(shape=1) + geom_smooth(method = lm, formula = y ~ poly(x, 2, raw = TRUE))
g
The model output was:
Call:
lm(formula = Rate ~ poly(year, 2, raw = TRUE), data = yearlyratesub)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.126332 -0.037683 -0.002602 0.053222 0.083503
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -8.796e+03 3.566e+03 -2.467 0.0297 *
poly(year, 2, raw = TRUE)1 8.747e+00 3.545e+00 2.467 0.0297 *
poly(year, 2, raw = TRUE)2 -2.174e-03 8.813e-04 -2.467 0.0297 *
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 0.0666 on 12 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.3369, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2264
F-statistic: 3.048 on 2 and 12 DF, p-value: 0.08503
How can I enterpret that now? The overall model p value is not significant but the intercept and single slopes are?
Should I rather try another fit than x² or even group the values and test between groups e.g. with an ANOVA? I know the LM has low fit but I guess it's because I have little values and maybe x² might be not it...?
Would be happy about input regarding model and outcome interpretation..
Sources
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