Kth smallest number algorithm doing extra work?

Question

So I'm preparing for a technical interview, and one of my practice questions is the Kth smallest number. I know that I can do a sort for O(n * log(n)) time and use a heap for O(n * log(k)). However I also know I can partition it (similar to quicksort) for an average case of O(n).

The actual calculated average time complexity should be:

I've double checked this math using WolframAlpha, and it agrees.

So I've coded my solution, and then I calculated the actual average time complexity on random data sets. For small values of n, it's pretty close. For example n=5 might give me an actual of around 6.2 when I expect around 5.7. This slightly more error is consistent.

This only gets worse as I increase the value of n. For example, for n=5000, I get around 15,000 for my actual average time complexity, when it should be slightly less than 10,000.

So basically, my question is where are these extra iterations coming from? Is my code wrong, or is it my math? My code is below:

import java.util.Arrays;
import java.util.Random;

public class Solution {
    static long tc = 0;
    
    static void swap(int[] arr, int i, int j) {
        int temp = arr[i];
        arr[i] = arr[j];
        arr[j] = temp;
    }

    static int kMin(int[] arr, int k) {
        arr = arr.clone();
        int pivot = pivot(arr);
        if(pivot > k) {
            return kMin(Arrays.copyOfRange(arr, 0, pivot), k);
        } else if(pivot < k) {
            return kMin(Arrays.copyOfRange(arr, pivot + 1, arr.length), k - pivot - 1);
        }
        return arr[k];
    }

    static int pivot(int[] arr) {
        Random rand = new Random();
        int pivot = rand.nextInt(arr.length);
    
        swap(arr, pivot, arr.length - 1);
    
        int i = 0;
        for(int j = 0; j < arr.length - 1; j++) {
            tc++;
            if(arr[j] < arr[arr.length - 1]) {
                swap(arr, i, j);
                i++;
            }
        }
        swap(arr, i, arr.length - 1);
        return i;
    }

    public static void main(String args[]) {
        int iterations = 10000;
        int n = 5000;
        for(int j = 0; j < iterations; j++) {
            Random rd = new Random(); 
            int[] arr = new int[n];
            for (int i = 0; i < arr.length; i++) {
                arr[i] = rd.nextInt();
            }
            int k = rd.nextInt(arr.length - 1);
            kMin(arr, k);
        }
        System.out.println("Actual: " + tc / (double)iterations);
        
        double expected = 2.0 * n - 2.0 - (Math.log(n) / Math.log(2));
        System.out.println("Expected: " + expected);
    }
    

}